Guest Blog - NFL Betting With An Edge

A friend of mine sent me a link the other day to a great podcast.  ESPN's Chad Millman interviews Geoff Kulesa, founder of Wunderdog Sports Picks, about the value of week #1 NFL lines.  My friend knows I'm a fan of Wunderdog but up until now I did not know much about the founder or the founder's philosophies.  Although I am a horse racing bettor and the his discussion centers around football, I found the interview fascinating.  I'll warn you, the interview lasts 37 minutes, but if you would like to listen to the podcast click on this link .  Don't forget to come back!!

What impressed me most about Jeff's interview is his use of systems and statistics to determine his selections. He details his use of over 500 systems that he constantly monitors to be certain that assumptions and rules for picking football winners does not change.  Geoff gives an example of one of his systems.  He states that in week 1, teams that lost 10 or more games last year and are an underdog in week one cover 57% of the time.  He stresses that use of these rules simply highlight teams to be considered for play.  This system fits Geoff's contrarain nature but warns that other factors have to be considered before a decision is made.  In week 1, 7 teams qualify for consideration under Geoff's system.

Jeff's comes from the corporate world where he worked in a marketing job at Hewlett Packard Co.  It is there he learned the value of  and developed his love of statistics.  10 years ago he decided to take his talent for statistical analysis to the world of sports betting.  As a long time horse player I can identify with his unemotional numbers approach to sports betting.  I have long held the belief that the past is a good predictor of the future and was comforted by the fact that the Wunderdog philosophy is embedded in unemotional basics.

The interview continues into the all important and much overlooked subject of money management.  Money management is a tool I learned over the years the hard way.  It has since become a very important tool in my handicapping.  Geoff speaks of betting 1-2% of your bankroll for any situation and fight the temptation of varying bets, or making "save" bets on Monday night after a losing weekend.  Proper money management gives you a clear path to profitable betting and provides the confidence and capital you need to survive the enviable loosing streaks.

It's Geoff's unemotional banker like approach to sports betting that gives me confidence to use his selections in my own systems.  If are not familiar with the Wunderdog Sports Betting Service you should go to their web site.  They cover a wide range of sports betting services and information and many of them are free.

If your interested in horse racing and wondering how to use Wunderdogs picks visit my blog at http://freeunderdog.blogspot.com. I think you will enjoy the site.

Almost forgot!! One last thing.  Of the 7 opening week system plays from above, 5 teams covered (70%).  I love when a plan comes together.

ESPN Podcast - Wunderdog